Ming-Chi Kuo Reiterates Apple’s Use of Pancake Lenses for Their HMD While Pointing to Second Generation Budget HMD and More

In early 2022, Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo’s reporting on TFI Securities came to a dead halt. Since that time, Kuo has struggled on Twitter where his tweets don’t relate to his past work. Now Kuo may have found a new outlet for his Apple predictions on Medium.com where writers have an open platform to submit articles, analysis and more.

Ming-Chi Kuo: Apple Mixed Reality Headset Predictions

  1. “The high ASP pancake lens is the key optical component of Apple AR/MR, directly affecting the visual experience and form factor design.” Obviously, Apple covered Kuo’s original coverage of Pancake lens vendors “Genius” and “Young Optics” in January.
  2. “The second-generation Apple AR/MR may have higher-end and more affordable models, which will launch in 1:25, and component vendors will begin shipping in 2:24.
  3. Apple AR/MR shipments could reach 10 million units as early as 2025 or 2026, thanks to Apple’s second-generation AR/MR product segmentation strategy and ecosystem.
  1. The first-generation Apple AR/MR will adopt two 3P Pancake modules (one for each eye). The total cost of Pancake lenses is around $30-40 (USD), or roughly the equivalent of 20 high-end 7P lenses. It constitutes a new growth driver for Apple’s optical supply chain in the medium and long term. The cost of second generation Pancake lenses will likely increase to improve the viewing experience and form factor design.
  1. Largan Precision will likely be a new supplier of the Pancake Lens for Apple’s second-generation AR/MR headset and will ramp up production capacity for this order at its new Taichung factory.

While it’s nice to see Ming-Chi Kuo finally find a platform for the deeper analysis he was famous for, the question remains: why isn’t Kuo’s analysis back on the site? TFI Securities website where it has been for a few years? One day we may get an answer from Kuo.

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